Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 37.889015 44.782107 52.322520 61.150804 71.169368 82.150946 95.062947
2025-01-12 29.275883 38.849767 50.303279 64.868162 82.736946 103.777706 130.246095
2025-01-19 21.419056 31.313512 44.051551 61.347384 83.877826 111.866859 148.852378
2025-01-26 18.083905 28.598010 42.949467 63.454563 91.408783 127.544135 177.038603
2025-02-02 16.258267 27.496419 43.611624 67.625534 101.591817 146.911387 210.759038
2025-02-09 14.210484 25.655637 42.863735 69.543185 108.591313 162.221980 239.726407
2025-02-16 12.379660 23.806365 41.780740 70.703187 114.390403 175.996640 267.092975
2025-02-23 10.614899 21.748395 40.064004 70.622846 118.202112 186.998469 290.944057
2025-03-02 8.900950 19.472000 37.675980 69.173294 119.706535 194.585861 310.109993
2025-03-09 7.664804 17.839222 36.123764 68.834248 122.758437 204.434566 332.802660
2025-03-16 6.112497 15.308503 32.678462 64.966459 119.855936 205.061315 341.759722
2025-03-23 5.519195 14.606239 32.416622 66.463362 125.641008 219.128827 371.317662
2025-03-30 4.623252 13.184181 30.813007 65.777789 128.329440 229.405244 397.040656
2025-04-06 4.315958 13.044705 31.713646 69.787380 139.383849 253.738282 446.008606
2025-04-13 3.347432 11.091322 28.660192 66.050588 136.657364 255.606411 459.701082
2025-04-20 3.018121 10.663355 28.725811 68.289555 144.637995 275.397975 502.759100
2025-04-27 2.880926 10.720761 29.851945 72.718742 156.854031 302.804420 559.192191
2025-05-04 2.596602 10.292092 29.815001 74.754128 164.731215 323.164205 604.814770
2025-05-11 2.299731 9.746194 29.420546 75.985062 171.133318 341.229179 647.268023
2025-05-18 1.974446 9.014914 28.463866 75.899815 174.962940 354.929633 682.862253
2025-05-25 1.632374 8.112438 26.927351 74.361574 175.798406 363.307257 709.667681
2025-06-01 1.390036 7.475545 25.968291 74.001735 178.913312 375.846217 743.992343
2025-06-08 1.060494 6.365778 23.520342 69.895401 174.058666 373.567915 752.394906